Beef (Commodity)

Near Term Pricing: Steady to Decreasing

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Strong

The Choice cutout inched lower as an elevated harvest and seasonally heavier carcass weights held most prices steady to slightly lower. Fed steer prices have now declined four straight months, and 2026 beef imports are forecast up nearly 18%. USDA trimmed its 2027 beef production outlook.

Beef – End Meats & Ground

Near Term Pricing: Steady to Decreasing

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Steady

Chuck held steady as returning retail demand kept chuck roll and clod inventories in line, while brisket softened below year-ago levels. Rounds slipped on heavier weights and growing box inventories, though cooler weather should lift roast demand. Ground beef held steady.

Beef – Middle Meats (Rib & Loin)

Near Term Pricing: Steady to Decreasing

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Mixed

Ribs held mainly steady near record levels but could ease as demand softens; light ribeyes remain tight while heavies are available. Loins moved lower, with top sirloin at a 52-week low and excess strip loin inventory weighing on prices. Tenderloin may see holiday demand.

Butter

Near Term Pricing: Steady to Decreasing

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Steady

CME butter closed the week slightly lower as churns build holiday supplies. In the East, production and demand are steady with cream readily available. National 80% butterfat inventories remain high, and USDA lowered its 2026 and 2027 butter price forecasts.

Cheese

Near Term Pricing: Increasing

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Steady

CME blocks and barrels rallied sharply on the week, though inventories remain high and cheddar loads are readily available. Mozzarella demand is strong, while foodservice demand is soft nationally. Eastern production and demand are steady, and tight European stocks point to firmer prices overseas.

Fluid Dairy – Class I

Near Term Pricing: Increasing

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Steady

The November base Class I price rose sharply from October, lifting fluid milk costs for the month. Milk supplies are steady in the East. Cooler weather is also improving output in major milk-producing regions, keeping Class I supplies readily available.

Fluid Dairy – Class II

Near Term Pricing: Steady to Decreasing

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Strong

The advanced butterfat pricing factor moved lower for November, pointing to easier costs on cream-based products. Cream supplies are heavy in the East. Class II production, including cream cheese, is ramping up.

Oils/Shortening/Margarine

Near Term Pricing: Steady

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Steady

USDA held its soybean oil price forecast unchanged while trimming projected stocks, with biofuel use still taking more than half of domestic use. Canola production is forecast at a record on expanded acreage. Indonesia’s palm oil production forecast was cut on dry weather.

Pork

Near Term Pricing: Steady to Decreasing

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Steady

The pork cutout firmed slightly early in the week as bellies gained, while loins and butts slipped. USDA cut its fourth-quarter hog price forecast, citing weaker bellies and hams, softer Mexican export demand, and consumers shifting to chicken. Production forecasts were also trimmed.

Poultry (Chicken)

Near Term Pricing: Mixed

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Steady

Whole-bird prices edged higher last week. Boneless breast fell sharply, while tenders, wings, and boneless thighs firmed and leg quarters eased. USDA raised its 2026 broiler production forecast to 3.6% growth and trimmed its fourth-quarter whole-bird price outlook.

Poultry (Turkey)

Near Term Pricing: Steady to Increasing

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Steady

Fresh whole hen prices edged higher heading into the holiday season, while fresh parts averaged lower. USDA raised both its turkey production and fourth-quarter hen price forecasts. HPAI affected eleven commercial flocks in September, trimming supply in key turkey-producing states.

Produce

Near Term Pricing: Increasing – Romaine, Tomatoes, Potatoes
Steady – Lemons, Oranges, Onions, Bell Peppers
Mixed – Apples, Iceberg, Strawberries, Celery, Grapes
Decreasing – Avocados, Broccoli, Cauliflower

Supply vs. Demand: Light/Decreasing – Iceberg, Romaine, Valencia Oranges
Increasing – Broccoli, Navel Oranges
Transitioning – Lettuce, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Tomatoes, Bell Peppers

Lettuce markets are firming as fall growing areas wind down ahead of the winter transition, while broccoli and cauliflower eased. Tomatoes moved higher as the season shifts toward Florida. Potatoes firmed, and citrus remains mostly steady on light supplies.

• Apples: Mixed; shipments rising slightly, with Appalachian supplies increasing seasonally.
• Avocados: Mostly lower; Mexican supplies steady.
• Bell Peppers: Mostly steady; Florida harvest begins late October.
• Broccoli: Mostly lower; Mexican supplies increasing as the California season winds down.
• Cauliflower: Mostly lower; winter growing areas start around November 1.
• Celery: Mixed; supplies steady, quality variable.
• Grapes: Mixed; shipments decreasing as the season winds down.
• Iceberg: Mixed; supplies very light during the growing-area transition, quality variable.
• Lemons: Generally steady; light supplies as Southern Hemisphere imports end.
• Onions: Mostly steady; some sizes lower, New York supplies increasing.
• Oranges: Mostly steady; Navels increasing as Valencias decline.
• Potatoes: Steady to higher; supplies steady.
• Romaine: Mostly higher; supplies very light during the growing-area transition.
• Strawberries: Mixed; supplies mixed, quality variable.
• Tomatoes: Mostly higher; Florida harvest beginning as California finishes.

Seafood

Near Term Pricing: Mixed

Supply vs. Demand: Short – Mixed

Groundfish remains the tightest segment, with cod constrained by quota cuts and prices elevated, and Alaska pollock catch running below 2025. Shrimp remains import-driven, with tariffs lifting landed costs and Indian shrimp prices reaching a 12-month high.

Shell Eggs

Near Term Pricing: Mixed

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Strong

Wholesale egg prices softened in early October as demand eased and inventories edged higher. The layer flock is up more than 5% from a year ago, and breakers are running full on ample supply. USDA still expects a seasonal fourth-quarter price rise, though it lowered that forecast.

Sugar

Near Term Pricing: Steady

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Steady

USDA cut beet sugar production to its lowest since 2019/20 and also lowered cane output. Ending stocks were raised, however, on larger beginning stocks and softer food and beverage deliveries, lifting the stocks-to-use ratio. Expected Mexican shipments to the U.S. are unchanged.

Wheat (Flour-Based Products)

Near Term Pricing: Steady

Supply vs. Demand: Available – Steady

U.S. wheat production was raised slightly, and ending stocks increased as exports fell to the second-lowest level since 1971/72. USDA lowered its season-average farm price. Hard red winter stocks are down sharply after drought, while global production is nearly unchanged.